Libya 2026 Grain Production Forecast to Decline by 20 Percent

Libya’s 2026 grain production forecast to fall by 20 % due to mixed weather conditions

A Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) report dated 16 July (published on 17 July by Relief Web International) says mixed weather conditions will affect Libya’s 2026 cereal (grain) production prospects. It said cereal import requirements in 2026/27 marketing year are forecast above average.

The report said food inflation rate increased in 2026, and a funding shortfall will constrain humanitarian assistance to vulnerable households in 2026.

Mixed weather conditions affect 2026 cereal production prospects
The report said harvesting of the 2026 winter wheat and barley crops started in May 2026 and is expected to be completed by late July. Dry weather conditions between October and November 2025 delayed planting operations and reduced planted area in most parts of the country, negatively affecting yield prospects.

Although rainfall improved from March 2026 onwards in some parts of the country, precipitation amounts remained significantly below average in the eastern region, particularly in the major cereal producing Al Jabal Al Akhdar province. Total cereal production in 2026 is forecast at about 150 000 tonnes, nearly 20 percent below the five‑year average.

Cereal import requirements in 2026/27 marketing year forecast above average
Cereal import requirements for the 2026/27 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 3.3 million tonnes, nearly 7 percent above the average level. Wheat import requirements, which account for more than 40 percent of the total cereal imports, are forecast at 1.5 million tonnes, about 12 percent above the average.

Libya’s heavy reliance on imports
This reflects the country's heavy reliance on imports to meet domestic consumption needs, coupled with the expected below-average wheat production in 2026.

Food inflation rate increased in 2026
The report said Food inflation rate increased by about 18 percent year‑on‑year in May 2026, largely reflecting the depreciation of the Libyan dinar, which weakened by about 15 percent compared to a year earlier and increased the cost of imported food commodities.

Funding shortfall constrains humanitarian assistance to vulnerable households in 2026
Political and economic instability, the report added, continue to undermine livelihoods and access to essential services.

The report said, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), more than 110 000 refugees were registered in the country as of April 2026. Humanitarian assistance remains constrained by funding shortages, limiting support to vulnerable groups, including refugees, migrants and internally displaced people.

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