A debate is raging on Libyan legacy and social media as to who is, or are, the more likely perpetrator / perpetrators of the Zawia fibre-optic armed drone attacks on state oil, water and electricity infrastructure.
Fired by anger at the destruction at the Zawia sites and in a desperate effort to attribute blame, at this relatively early stage of official investigations, the debate involves much unscientific and amateur speculation and conjecture. Nevertheless, the debate is proving persuasive and catching the Libyan public’s imagination and creating overnight ‘‘armchair’’ experts on drones and drone warfare.
The FPV fibre-optic drones were imported from Ukraine
There is a school of thought that such sophisticated (by Libyan militia warfare standards) FPV fibre-optic drones are the type of fully assembled technology supplied from Ukraine— as witnessed in countless TV and internet footage from its war with Russia.
This school believes that these Ukraine-sourced drones could not be sourced by the average Libyan militia group and would need to be smuggled passed the Ukrainian authorities and international arms embargo agencies through state-to-state cooperation. The fingers of this school of thought point firmly in the direction of the Under Secretary of Defence, Abdelsalam Al-Zoubi. They believe Zoubi imported them and distributed them to aligned forces/militias.
This is quite a leap even by Libya’s self-destructive standards since the 2011 revolution that ended the 42-year Qaddafi regime. Nevertheless, it is a school of thought that believes there is a darker, and yet to be revealed, side to the Undersecretary of Defence.
While they don’t quite necessarily believe that Zoubi ordered or oversaw the firing of the drones, they believe that aligned security groups / militias in Zawia were the ones who fired at the Zawia sites. It is also unclear if Zoubi had given the green light for the drones to be used or whether his allies went rogue and acted unilaterally. This is the case for the drones being of Ukrainian origin based on their ‘‘sophistication’’.
The drones were home-made?
A second school of thought is coalescing around the belief that the drones were home-made. This is based on a (unscientific) study of the various photos of the drones published by official and security state entities involved in inspecting and fighting the various Zawia fires and attacks.
One particular set of photographs of the destroyed remains of a drone posted by the Criminal Investigation Agency has been the basis for the ‘‘homemade drone’’ theory.
To this school of thought, a very close study, even by the untrained eye, indicate clearly that the drones were home-made. They believe that the haphazard way in which the drone was put together confirms that it was assembled locally – and did not arrive fully assembled from a single, commercial, professional manufacturer abroad.
The ‘‘homemade’’ school believe the parts of the photographed drone are civilian, readily available commercial components and parts used by hobbyists around the world.
They also believe that the way the 82mm mortar shell warhead, easily sourced by any Libyan militia, was attached to the drone's body using standard duct tape - reinforces its local assembly.
This precludes this drone from being a standardised, factory manufactured and imported in one piece - military product.
If the ‘‘homemade drone’’ theory proves to be the correct one, it lets the Undersecretary of Defence and Prime Minister and Minister of Defence, Abdel Hamid Aldabaiba, off the hook and saves them much domestic and international embarrassment.
It also points the finger away from Zoubi’s Zawia ally, Othman Al-Lahab, head of the 103rd Battalion, and points it towards Mohamed Bahroun (aka Al-Far), head of the First Support Group and Deputy Head of the Anti-Security Threat Agency.
The theory is that Bahroun wants to take control of Zawia Oil Refinery to have better access to fuel for smuggling and black-market profiteering booty.
Zawia Refinery is currently ‘‘secured’’ Mohamed Al-Gassab, the commander of the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG), a force nominally under the command of the Tripoli Ministry of Defence. Tripoli Prime Minister Aldabaiba holds the dual role of the Minister of Defence.
Al-Lahab is believed to be entering into an alliance of convenience with Al-Gassab to prevent Bahroun from expanding his reach.
There is another view that part or all these drones were manufactured in Libya using 3-D printers. Afterall, everything is downloadable from the internet nowadays.
Mere speculation?
None of this speculation over the origins of the fibre-optics drones, and by extension who fired them, is conclusive at this early stage. But they provide early theoretical grains hopefully to be confirmed or disproved.
Ultimately, only the official investigative agencies in hold of the fragments of the spent fibre-optic drones can conduct forensic tests to ascertain the origins of the drones.
It then becomes a political decision whether the findings are accurately publicised or corrupted or suppressed.
Finally, it will be recalled that Bahroun labelled the firing of the drones as ‘‘an act of terrorism’’, while PM Aldabaiba vowed to take ‘‘a firm response’’ against Zawia’s armed drone perpetrators, adding that the use of drones ‘‘is a grave crime and an escalation that will not go unanswered’’.
Who stands to gain?
Someone in Zawia fired the drones systematically, premeditatedly and in a calculated and targeted manner. They are more likely of previous security experience. Then, there is the standard question of a classic "whodunnit"?’’ Who stands to gain from the havoc wreaked by the drone attacks?
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