In his speech delivered on 24 December celebrating the 73rd anniversary of Libya’s independence, Tripoli based Libyan prime minister, Abdel Hamid Aldabaiba, recalled the sacrifices of Libya’s grandfathers and fathers in building the independent state.
He called for the adoption of a constitution that ends the current transitional stages and regulates political life. It will be recalled that Libya has been in this ”interim/transitional” stage since the 2011 revolution that ended the Qaddafi regime.
Aldabaiba criticised the absence of the will of the people (the lack of elections and lapsed mandates) and the absence of the draft constitution and demanded that the draft constitution be put to a public referendum.
Failure to put constitution to a referendum
It will be recalled that Libya’s two legislative and consultative bodies, the House of Representatives (HoR) and High State Council (HSC), have over the years failed to reach agreement to enable the draft constitution to be put to a public referendum.
In his speech, Aldabaiba rejected foreign interventions, turning Libya into an arena for their conflicts and called for focusing on national reconciliation and extending a hand of cooperation to all.
Russian-backed Wagner v Turkish forces
Aldabaiba is mainly referring to the presence of Russian-backed Wagner forces in eastern Libya supporting the eastern regime. In response, the East accuse Tripoli of inviting Turkish forces into Western Libya to help repel the attack on Tripoli by Khalifa Hafter.
The Tripoli PM also called on politicians to assume their responsibility and respect the will of the people in choosing their leadership.
Background and Analysis
It will be recalled that the Tripoli based and internationally recognised Libyan government, led by Aldabaiba, conflicts with the Libyan government and the internationally recognised rump parliament (consisting of 25 to 40 members out of an elected 200 members) based in the east of Libya and dominated by strongman Khalifa Hafter.
Most of the parliamentarians are boycotting the eastern based HoR for, amongst other reasons, its dominance by Hafter and failing to hold fair and free constitutionally based elections.
The 2011 Transitional Constitutional Declaration (TCD)
Both sides ostensibly want elections but cannot agree on the rules of the planned elections. Both governments are deemed ‘‘interim’’ governments according to Libya’s 2011 Transitional Constitutional Declaration (TCD) and its subsequent amendments and political agreements.
The February 2011 revolution ostensibly overthrew the Qaddafi regime (with much NATO help) in order to install a democratic state. During the revolution the TCD was declared and unanimously accepted by the anti-Qaddafi forces as the social contract and political roadmap. At its heart are democracy, a constitution, free speech, elections and peaceful change of government.
Limited TCD tasks for interim governments and parliaments
In its details, the TCD specifically tasks the interim government/s and parliament/s to oversee the drafting and public approval via a referendum of a permanent constitution, then hold elections based on this constitution. This is their specific task.
The aftereffects of 42 years of Qaddafi dictatorship?
However, successive interim governments and elected parliaments since 2011 have been sidetracked and failed to achieve this. After 42 years of Qaddafi authoritarian rule, they have been dizzied by power. They have instead engaged in several militia and fake ideological wars and enjoyed the spoils of being in power such as the corrupt access to Libya’s seemingly endless rentier wealth – oil revenues.
The rentier dynamic
The fact that Libya is a rentier state means its incumbent governments/parliaments do not need their citizens to go to work in order to pay taxes in order to fund the government/parliament and its activities. The oil revenues act as a substitute for the need for taxation. This means Libyan citizens cannot threaten the existence of their incumbent militia-backed government/parliament by refusing to pay taxes. This means the Libyan government/parliament can survive without the political approval of its citizens as there is currently no peaceful political mechanism to remove them.
The suppression of Libya’s civil society and NGOs
The suppression of Libya’s civil society and NGOs also means that there are none of the usual democratic civil tools for forcing politicians out of office. Libyans are stuck with their corrupt political elites. These are the dynamics of a militia rentier state where the political incumbents and their militia allies enforce the undemocratic status quo. The unlimited rentier wealth also helps the political incumbents to buy off opposition with sweetener subsidies.
The role of the international community
The only way to remove Libya’s incumbent militia/political rulers is if they agree consensually to be removed from office – or if the international community forces them out by ceasing to interact with them or buy Libya’s oil.
Unfortunately, the international community, as Aldabaiba alluded to by rejecting ”foreign interventions, turning Libya into an arena for their conflicts” are split over their actual (versus declared) policy over Libya and are more interested in their narrow national interests than Libya’s long-term interests.
This short termism does not apply just to Russia’s support of Eastern Libya (in return for military bases), but also to the West preferring short term peace and stability by, for example, supporting and enshrining Libya’s militias.
The fragility of the veneer of stability of Libya’s prolonged political stalemate
But as UNSMIL head Stephanie Koury’s said in her remarks to the UN Security Council at the end of last month, ”Libya’s guns largely remain silent, but it is neither stable nor at peace”.
She said ”The status quo is unsustainable and has persisted for too long. Unilateral actions pursued by political elites have deeply eroded Libya’s institutions into parallel and competing structures.
The recent crisis over the leadership of the Central Bank of Libya exposed the fragility of the veneer of stability of Libya’s prolonged political stalemate.” and that ”Libya’s transitional architecture is crumbling under the weight of political polarization and the lack of a clear project for a permanent system of governance”.
Libya needs renewed political mandates through constitutionally based elections to increase the likelihood of real peace and stability and a permanent system of popular governance.
Libyans must have right to vote on draft constitution through referendum: CDA | (libyaherald.com)
Amazigh Supreme Council boycotts planned referendum on draft constitution | (libyaherald.com)
HoR commences discussion of draft constitution and its referendum | (libyaherald.com)
CDA vote on draft constitution ruled invalid by Beida court | (libyaherald.com)
New draft constitution “gives everyone something and nobody everything” | (libyaherald.com)
Libya’s Draft Constitution – Overview | (libyaherald.com)
