World Tourism & Travel report on Libya’s tourism sector forecasts poor growth to 2027

By Sami Zaptia.

London, 11 October 2017:

The World Tourism and Travel Council 2017 report published this week makes some grim reading regarding its expectations for Libya’s tourism and travel sector. While the study takes 2016 as its starting point – a year where Libya is at its lowest economic performance for decades and experiencing unprecedented political divisions and militia insecurity – the report nevertheless makes a stark warning.

The report forecasts that the direct contribution of travel and tourism in Libya is expected to rise from 3.4 percent to 3.6 percent of Libya’s GDP by 2017. The sector is also only expected to contribute to direct employment with growth of 2.3 in 2017 to 2.5 percent of total employment in the decade to 2027.

It also reported that Libya ranked 133^rd in relative size in contribution of the tourism and travel sector to the country’s GDP in 2016.

Employment is forecast to fall by 5.3 percent in 2017 to 101,000 from 106,500 jobs in 2016 and rise by 2.9 percent per annum to 134,000 jobs in 2027, or just 5.9 percent of total employment.

GDP: DIRECT CONTRIBUTION

The direct contribution of Travel & Tourism to GDP was LYD1,563.9mn (USD1,125.8mn), 3.4percent of total GDP in 2016 and is forecast to rise by 2.4 percent in 2007, and to rise by 3.0 percent per annum from 2017 to 2027, to LD 4,852 million (US$ 3,493 million), 3.6 percent of GDP IN 2027.

GDP: TOTAL CONTRIBUTION

The total contribution of Travel & Tourism to GDP was LD 3,238.2 million (US$ 2,331.0 million), 7.1 percent of GDP in 2016 and is forecast to rise by 1.2 percent in 2017, and to rise by 4.0 percent per annum to LD 4,852.2 million (US$ 3,492.8 million, 3.6 percent of GDP in 2027).

EMPLOYMENT: DIRECT CONTRIBUTION

In 2016 travel and tourism directly supported 43,000 jobs (2.3 percent of total employment). This is expected to fall by 2.0 percent in 2017 and rise by 2.8 percent per annum to 55,000 jobs (2.5 percent of total employment) in 2027.

EMPLOYMENT: TOTAL CONTRIBUTION

In 2016, the total contribution of travel and tourism to employment, including jobs directly supported by the industry was 5.7 percent of total employment (106,500 jobs). This is expected to fall by 5.3 percent in 2017 to 101,000 jobs and rise by 2.9 percent per annum to 134,000 jobs in 2027 (5.9 percent of total.)

VISITOR EXPORTS

Visitor exports generated LD 133.5 million (US$ 96.1 million), 0.8 percent of total exports in 2016. This is forecast to fall by 4.5 percent in 2017, and grow by 1.1 percent per annum from 2017 to 2027, to LD 142.8 million (US$ 102.8 million) in 2027 or 0.2 percent of total.

INVESTMENT

Travel and tourism investment in 2016 was LD 319.7 million (US$ 230.2 million) or 2.7 percent of total investment. This is expected to rise by 5.7 percent in 2017, and rise by 3.0 percent per annum over the next ten years to LD 455.5 million (US$ 327.9 million) in 2027 or 1.8 percent of total investment.

RANKING

Ranking Libya out of 185 countries, the WTTC put Libya’s tourism sector at 112^th in absolute size in 2016, 133^rd in relative size in contribution to GDP in 2016, 167^th in the table of forecast growth and 107^th in long-term growth for the decade from 2017 to 2017.

*All values are in constant 2016 prices and exchange rates.

 For the complete report visit the WRRC website. www.wttc.org