Top military officials from Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Kuwait, Sudan, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, along with Libya, will meet in Cairo . . .[restrict]on 18 May to look at how to bring stability to Libya. France and Italy may also be represented. Political and security analyst Richard Galustian considers one possible outcome.
A critical meeting in Cairo in the coming days of Arab defence officials could be one of the final conclaves before Egypt leads an international regional military coalition into Libya to fight against extremists of all stripes but especially the Islamic State (IS).
The Egyptian-led move, if it happens, would have to be in response to a request by the legitimate Libyan government, and would come one year after General Khalifa Hafter, who is under the tutelage of the Parliament (HOR) and the Prime Minister Abdullah Al-Thinni, declared war against Islamic extremists.
Regional Muslim states are now exerting their military will and their respective forces into coalitions.
The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, launched in late March 2015, is just the beginning of such Arab-led kinetic operations.
It looks like Egypt is about to lead in the same manner, into the Libyan maelstrom.
The Egyptian military, of course, is already said to have engaged in airstrikes, maritime action and special operations in Libya particularly in the wake of the beheadings of Egyptian Copts in February 2015. Clearly, the genesis of these Arab-led coalitions lies in the debate over a future joint Arab force which is being discussed in conjunction with the Arab League.
Importantly, Egypt is planning to host another meeting based on Libyan tribes later in the month in collaboration with the UN. This meeting, co-organised by Justice First, is the brainchild of Libyan billionaire businessman Hassan Tatanaki, and aims to gather a wide-spectrum of Libyan tribes to promote unity against the extremists in Libya.
It is believed military action led by the Egyptians will be very much part of the behind-the-scenes talks in the US at Camp David this week, the first ever summit meeting between President Obama and leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
It is further understood that this is why Cairo is seeking to lead a coalition, with the UN and EU hopefully backing up the military effort from behind, because it believes now is the time to act against Islamic extremists before bigger, more serious threats emerge from Libya.
A proposed unilateral European military action is thought by many to take too long to reach a consensus by the many states that make up the EU and also is not popular with all the sides in the Libyan conflict as it would represent a ‘Western colonial’ act of force.
However, a purely Arab coalition led by Egyptian Forces into Libya is deemed more viable and even necessary to eradicate the IS threat in the country, to the region and for Southern Europe.
© Richard Galustian
Richard Galustian is a senior consultant to several international corporations involved in Libya and the wider Middle East and North Africa.
Opinion articles do not necessarily represent the view of the Libya Herald.
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