Following the mobilisation of forces and heavy weapons around Tripoli over the last three days, in a statement issued yesterday, UNSMIL called for peaceful dialogue and de-escalation.
The full statement read as follows:
‘‘The United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) observes with deep concern the continued mobilization of forces and heavy weaponry around Tripoli, and considers this to be a dangerous development.
We note that discussions have progressed on security arrangements in Tripoli which have been ongoing under the auspices of the Presidency Council within the Truce Committee and the Security and Military Arrangements Committee since June, with the support of UNSMIL. We are also aware that progress has been made on a number of issues of concern to the GNU.
We call on all parties to continue dialogue to resolve this matter as soon as possible, and exercise maximum restraint to avoid escalating tensions or endangering civilians.
Any action entailing the use of force—whether intentional or not—has the potential to escalate into violent clashes. This most recent buildup is causing widespread fear among Tripoli’s population. We urge the authorities to ensure clashes do not break out because of the potential harm to civilians in the most densely populated city in the country.
UNSMIL will continue to support mediation efforts and is engaging with key stakeholders to address emerging challenges and ensure the sustainability of the truce.
The Mission reminds all actors of their obligations under human rights and international humanitarian law and stresses that attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure are unlawful. The Mission reminds all parties that the United Nations Security Council on 17 May stated that those responsible for attacks against civilians would be held accountable’’.
Background and analysis
It will be recalled that well-armed forces from Misrata aligned to the Tripoli government have been mobilising in large numbers around the capital. The mobilisation is seen as a preparatory move by Tripoli Prime Minister, Abd Alhamid Aldabaiba, to an attack on the powerful Rada / Special Deterrence Force (SDF) militia based in the military section of the sprawling Mitiga base/airport. Rada /SPF also controls the political prison in Mitiga holding Islamic extremists.
Rada / SDF the only powerful militia remaining in Tripoli?
With the decapitation of the old leadership of the Support and Stability Apparatus (SSA) last May, headed then by the deceased (assassinated?) Abdelghani Ghnewa Al-Kikly, Rada / SDF, under Abdelrauf Kara, is the only remaining powerful militia in Tripoli.
Tripoli government needs monopoly on use of force to project territorial influence
By weakening or changing its leadership, the Tripoli based Libyan government of the day would gain a virtual monopoly on the use of force within inner Tripoli at least. This would enable it to project its power and influence on Greater Tripoli and all the way to the Tunisian border to the west, Shwerif to the south and the outskirts of Tawergha / Sirte in the east.
Existence of Rada / SDF: the enemy within?
The existence of Rada /SDF acts as a ball-on-chain drag on the Tripoli government in its efforts to gain a total monopoly on the use of force in Western Libya. It handicaps it in its efforts to confront head-on opposition militias on the outskirts of Tripoli and in Bani Walid / Wirfala, Zintan and Zawia.
Militias acting as Hafter’s pressure points
These militias, such as those in Zawia, are regularly used by Hafter in eastern Libya to threaten and weaken the Tripoli government. This was a case in point when the Tripoli government had its military confrontation with the SSA in May this year with Tripoli government opposition Zawia militias attacking Tripoli in support of the old SSA leadership. The Zawia militia interventions were superficial, but they reinforced the point.
Any Tripoli government needs to have full control over these militias to be master of all its western territory and be able to project beyond its current territory. This is a point that Hafter fully understands and is keen to prevent.
The international community need a Tripoli government in total control of Western Libya
In reality, while the international community do not like the process of clashes, collateral destruction and possible civilian injuries and deaths, they would very much like a Tripoli government that has a monopoly of the use of legitimate force in Tripoli and across western Libya.
Only with a Tripoli government in total control can Western companies, airliners and citizens freely return to Libya. And only with the return of foreign investment, personnel and their transfer of technology can Tripoli, western Libya and all of Libya progress.
International investment and expertise needed to diversify stagnant economy
Libya needs to desperately breakout of its current political and developmental quagmire to diversify its hydrocarbon-dependent and stagnant economy. It needs to develop its infrastructure, its health, education and training to create new value-added jobs beyond the current centralised, heavily subsidised rentier state. It needs to prepare for the post-oil era – with the help of advanced economies.
This cannot happen with a government that does not have a monopoly on the use of force and has to co-exist with militias.
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