The Tripoli based 444th Combat Brigade of the Libyan Army announced yesterday that several days ago it had ‘‘completely closed all smuggling routes and cut them off in positions spread over hundreds of kilometres in the middle of the Libyan desert’’.
The 444th Combat Brigade is the nearest thing the Tripoli based post Qaddafi Libyan government has to an army. It is not a militia group led by a warlord. It has had several turf wars with other Tripoli militias who see it as an existential threat.
This 444th Combat Brigade claimed that the closing-off of all the smuggling routes ‘‘has led to the cessation of the smuggling of people, fuel and drugs from south to north and from north to south, in defence of the assets of the Libyan people and to preserve the livelihood of all Libyans’’.
Availability of fuel in the south?
It said it is pleased to announce to inhabitants of southern Libya that fuel is available daily at all designated stations. The lists of stations that will be supplied daily with fuel will be published on the Brega Company page.
The 444th Combat Brigade further said that it has allocated a mobile phone number to citizens in the south in case the owners of the petrol stations smuggle fuel and do not sell it to citizens. Petrol station owners find it more profitable to sell all their fuel to smugglers at multiple profits than retailing it to individuals.
Smuggling petrol stations will be closed, owners arrested
The 444th Combat Brigade asked the public to contact it and inform it of the name and location of petrol stations that smuggle fuel, and it said the offending stations will be permanently closed and the owners of the station will be arrested.
Comment and analysis
The claim by the 444th Combat Brigade that it has ‘‘completely closed all smuggling routes and cut them off in positions spread over hundreds of kilometres in the middle of the Libyan desert’’ and that this ‘‘has led to the cessation of the smuggling of people, fuel and drugs from south to north and from north to south’’, is a very big claim.
The 444th Combat Brigade has probably closed off the most popular smuggling routes that are widely known. It is impossible to say that their action has led to the ‘‘cessation’’ of smuggling. Smuggling has existed for decades and hundreds of years – and will probably continue to do so forever.
The Libyan desert is vast
The Libya desert is vast in all the meaning of the word vast, well beyond the ‘‘hundreds of kilometres’’ that the 444th Combat Brigade mentions. The 444th Combat Brigade is not a huge force to the extent that it can cover all the Libyan desert. A Libyan saying says ‘‘the thief always beats the guard’’. That logic is that the guard, 444th Combat Brigade, cannot be everywhere in the Libyan desert all of the time.
The 444th Combat Brigade does not control all of Libya’s desert
Equally, Tripoli’s 444th Combat Brigade does not control all of Libya’s southern desert. Other forces and local, regional militias control some parts – including forces loyal to Khalifa Hafter. It is not in the interest of all these forces that smuggling is stopped.
Subsidised fuel is a strong smuggling incentive
The incentive of subsidised Libyan fuel, money made from drugs and of white slavery will, unfortunately, mean that the smugglers will seek new ways and new routes to bypass the 444th Combat Brigade or any other force attempting to combat smuggling.
The test of time
Ultimately, time will tell how successful the 444th Combat Brigade has been in combatting smuggling. This will be judged by the reality on the ground. The ample availability of fuel in petrol stations in southern Libya at near official prices will be one observable indicator.
The visible number of large numbers of irregular migrant sub-Saharan Africans all along Tripoli’s (and other cities’) roadsides offering their labour will be another indicator.
Re-exerting control on irregular migration into Libya
During a press conference held on the sidelines of the Trans-Mediterranean Migration Forum held in Tripoli on 17 July, the Tripoli based Acting Minister of Interior Imad Trabelsi revealed that 10,000 migrants have been deported to their countries in coordination with Tunisia and Italy, and that Libya is working to implement a policy of voluntary return.
Irregular migration a burden on Libya
Moreover, he revealed that more than 90,000 to 120,000 migrants come annually to Libya from sub-Saharan Africa and that Libya has more than 3 million irregular migrants, representing a significant burden on it.
The cost of irregular migration to Libya
Trabelsi said Libya spent more than US$ 330 million to fight the irregular migration crisis, while receiving only US$ 30 million in aid from EU countries.
The unprecedented influx of irregular migrants, he added, has caused a growth in crime and Libya is suffering from drug crimes, theft and others.
Need more support
Finally, he said the issue of irregular migration must be a key issue, and most importantly, there must be support for countries of origin and transit to reduce this phenomenon, and European partners must do more.
Realistic target
A more realistic target for Libya, therefore, is to exert some more control over the flow of the 90,000 to 100,000 irregular migrants that enter Libya annually, rather than stopping it completely. Coupled with plans for voluntary return policies, Libya hopes to reduce the more than 3 million irregular migrants already in the country. This will help reduce what it considers as a significant financial cost and the general burden on the Libyan state.
