By Sami Zaptia.
London, 22 October 2015:
The Tripoli-based Central Bank of Libya (CBL) warns of a financial and economic ‘’catastrophe’’ and ‘’suicide’’ . . .[restrict]if there is no political ‘’consensus’’ between the conflicting Libyan parties.
Ominously, and cryptically, the CBL warned in its report that it will ‘’play its full role in cooperation with relevant parties in implementing solutions if the necessary political and security environment is not provided’’. The report did not elaborate further on these solutions or the relevant parties.
The CBL Q3 financial report is released just days after an impasse is reached by the two Tripoli and Tobruk-based political and military factions on the political agreement brokered by the UN’s Special Representative Bernardino Leon.
The report reveals Libya’s finances from 01/01/2015 to 30/09/2015 in comparison to the 2015 estimated budget and in comparison to actual revenues and outgoings.
It says that at this decisive period of Libya’s history it has taken up the responsibility for the unity of Libya by maintaining political neutrality and continuing its work of revelation and transparency of the country’s finances.
The bank also adds that the report is ‘’a strong and fundamental reason’’ for the imperative need in ‘’reaching a political consensus’’ that guarantees the avoidance of increasing the financial crises to dangerous levels threatening citizens, endangering social harmony and threatening the national security.
The main cause of Libya’s economic and financial crises, the CBL says, ‘’is the lack of security’’. This lack of security is a major cause in the fall in oil production and export which is down to 15% of export capacity. This production and export decline is also accompanied by the record fall in international crude oil price.
The CBL goes on to forecast that ‘’oil prices will remain low for the next 6 years’’. ‘’Widespread corruption in the state system’’ as well as the ‘’growing of black market’’ have added to this which could lead to a ‘’catastrophic’’ situation. A situation that it has warned of on a number of occasions.
The CBL says that it hopes that this report highlights important economic and financial issues that should lead to ‘’consensus’’ during this dangerous period and a situation that will not improve during divisions and conflict but will increase in complexity.
| (Libyan Dinars in billions) | Actual revenues & outgoings to 30/09/2015 | Compared to estimated budget to 30/09/2015 | Compared to actual to 30/09/2014 |
| Total revenues | 14.3 | 15.2 | 15.7 |
| Outgoings: | |||
| Salaries – Chapter 1 | 13.6 | 14.2 | 17.2 |
| Operational – Chapter 2 | 2.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 |
| Development / projects – Ch 3. | 2 | 3.7 | 3.4 |
| Subsidies – Ch 4. | 6.1 | 6.1 | 10.9 |
| Public debt | 0 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Total outgoings | 23.8 | 29.9 | 34.5 |
| Total deficit | 9.5 | 14.7 | 18.8 |
Source: CBL released 20/10/2015
The CBL had recently denied that it was responsible for a cash shortage at banks blaming the shortage on bank branches. [/restrict]
