By Sami Zaptia.
Tripoli, 13 October 2014:
The surprise visit of UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon to Tripoli on Saturday was . . .[restrict]a high profile shot in the arm to the Libyan reconciliation process.
The set piece prepared statements were clear. Unconditional and immediate ceasefire, legitimacy and recognition of the House of Representatives (HoR), with inclusive dialogue through a consensual political process. Libya needs one parliament that represents all Libyans.
A military solution is not sustainable, and military intervention would not help resolve Libya’s problems, it was stressed. Going forward, all parties had to make hard choices and decisions. There was no room for terrorism in the process.
Whilst Italy’s Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini, stressed that the military must accept the election results and the majority must respect the minority. The confrontation must move to the political level, she had insisted.
A Libyan led dialogue and reconciliation with the support of the international community are the only way-out, no military solution is feasible and would merely lead to a catastrophe.
However, whilst no sources were prepared to make any comments on record on Saturday, off record they were prepared to fill in the blanks between the lines of the official diplomatic speak.
There was a concern that the HoR would get carried away by its legitimacy which would lead it to being inflexible and adopting entrenched positions. There was also a fear that the HoR and its Thinni government were becoming isolated in Tobruk which would in reality lead to their political marginalization and the erosion of their political legitimacy. Legitimacy for Tobruk is not enough in the long term, noted one source.
The inexperience of the newly elected HoR members has also meant that they were struggling to organize themselves and act effectively as a functioning unit.
The two sides needed to reach agreement on a number of issues such as the location of HoR sessions and most probably a national unity government that would include the anti HoR faction.
The next meeting of the two sides in two weeks under the auspices of Bernardino Leon would need to be one of substance. The Thinni government and HoR desperately need to find a way of returning to the capital Tripoli to maintain their legitimacy.
Compromising by both sides in a polarized atmosphere is going to be difficult. Sources admitted that in the present circumstances, returning to Tripoli is in practice difficult for the HoR and that Benghazi was not safe enough either. Finding a workable and acceptable new location for the HoR was not going to be easy.
Nevertheless, abandoning the capital was problematic for both the Libyan side and the international community. Tripoli was still the capital and embassies were unlikely to move to Tobruk. This makes it difficult for the international community to offer help and support for the HoR and Thinni government.
At the same time, it is also difficult for embassies which left Tripoli to come back, because their return to the capital could entail a de facto recognition of the illegitimate Al-Hassi government, explained a source.
The HoR and Thinni government were also seeking sanctuary in their relationship with Egypt which was affecting their political perspective. Not all Islamists can be labelled as terrorists nor can Misrata be labelled as Islamist and therefore terrorist or an indirect supporter of terrorism.
Sources were worried that Tobruk would get stuck in their own logic and rationale that would lead them to intractable positions – positions influenced by the Egyptian view point.
On the anticipated constitutional court ruling of 20 October on the constitutionality of the HoR convening in Tobruk, diplomatic sources said that a ruling against the HoR would put the HoR and Thinni government in a difficult position. But it would also put the UN and international community in a difficult position.
A political solution (the issue being political more than legal, as Bernardino Léon had stated in his press conference in Tripoli on Saturday) before the 20th of October would be highly preferable, sources admitted.
Sources accepted that whilst the group of HoR members boycotting Tobruk and taking part in the dialogue may not be able to sell any signed deal brokered by Leon or carry it to the militias, the same could be said of the Deputy president of the HoR Shuaib. They were not sure all HoR members shared a united view and this in turn weakens their representative Shuaib.
The highly placed sources also confirmed that there was never any possibility on Saturday of the UN or diplomats meeting with former GNC members or former GNC president Nuri Abusahmain or the GNC’s prime minister Omar Al-Hassi. If the anti HoR faction tried to force the issue, the Saturday meeting would have been abandoned, a source explained.
That is why sources feel that the next 15 days are fundamental: If the two sides move on to single out an agreed venue for the Parliament and to prepare the implementation of the two agreements on airports and humanitarian aid, the framework and the mindset can change in favour of a rational and sensible approach capable of assuring a future of prosperity and stability for all Libyans and for the whole region, sources concluded. [/restrict]
